2025: Are We Headed for Another 1929? (Here’s What They’re Not Telling You) | by Alberto Menéndez Rodriguez | The Capital | Mar, 2025

People don’t know how to invest, and it’s not just a problem of today. You probably don’t know either, but it’s not because you’re lazy, but because you’ve been lied to all the time. I’m going to explain why most people lose money when they get into the world of investing.

During 1929, the United States experienced one of its worst known moments, the Great Depression. Stock market crashes of 50% and 60% in a single day led many people on Wall Street to directly end their lives. This canonical event for the United States was a turning point in its history, the stock market that everyone talked about as the panacea for all could fall and people could literally lose everything in seconds.

We are currently starting 2025 and think we are on the edge again, that everything will happen like in 1929 or in 2008 when the banking system collapsed. But what is different from those other two moments in history? Well, let me tell you.

There are 3 things that characterize every modern recession or crisis:

1 — Warren Buffett accumulates money to buy stock deals.
2 — All governments and central banks claim that there are no indications that we are in a crisis.
3 — They are already starting to select the possible culprits.

Warren Buffett:

Warren Buffett is considered one of the best investors in history, his knowledge about stocks with potential has inspired books and movies.
His ‘indicator’ is one of the most reliable when it comes to predicting a crisis because, unlike Michael Burry (who says there will be a crisis every 6 months), Warren knows numbers, and he is very well connected.

Recently, it has come out that he has sold part of his shares in several companies, which has made consumers and investors tremble. And this is important not only because he is one of the richest people on the planet but because he has built that wealth from scratch and is famous for evading crises and taking advantage of them for his benefit.

Does this mean you should listen to him? Warren is a genius, but he is somewhat old-fashioned, he has investments in various assets such as technology companies like Apple, but refuses to make other investments such as Bitcoin or even rejected Facebook, making us see that he is an investor of the old guard.

Governments lie:

I know it seems like a generalization that everyone thinks, but in the end you have to think that the government cares about your vote, not your money, since the money, like it or not, will reach them sooner or later with your taxes. But there is another reason why they lie to you, and it’s partly your fault.

And you surely know that 99% of people have no financial education or interest in finance, so they do not want data that tell them the fluctuation of the market or the temporality of a recession, they want to know if they are going to take their money or not.

Why is this so important? Well, if you remember what I told you at the beginning, the population during the crisis of 1929 took their money out of the bank to keep it under their mattress. Which caused the banks to run out of money and the collapse to spread even further.

A crisis is further aggravated if people know it, because their little financial knowledge will make them make the instinctive decisions, less thought out and more serious for the economy. Do you want to know if a real crisis is coming? Pay attention to the inconsistencies that governments say and the behavior of the market. If they say that everything is fine, it probably isn’t.

The possible culprits.

Currently, many eyes are looking at Trump for his tariffs, but in 2022, people were looking at Putin and his war with Ukraine. There is always a triggering event that causes everything to fall, but inflation, which is one of the important factors of a possible crisis, isn’t caused by an invasion. What does the loss of value of the dollar have to do with Putin wanting to invade a country? Well, very little in truth…

And when people start to see some signs of recession, they prepare to look for culprits. In the case of 2008 in Spain, the current president at that time was blamed, in the United States too, and there is an undeniable truth.

The culprits have to have a face

The economy is complex for people

The blame is always on one person (or several).

And you have been manipulated. The market balances and changes and goes in cycles. Everyone knows that if something tends to rise constantly, it is either a Ponzi scheme or the fall will be major.

In fact, they look for culprits in such a way that even in 2009, it was said that the fall of the real estate market had been caused by a trader at his parents’ house. I have his story here in case you are interested.

But this is the undeniable truth of all markets. You will never know when the stock market or bitcoin will fall, no one knows for sure, and it is that uncertainty that forges the true investors from the greedy ones.

“It is when the tide goes out that we see who has been swimming naked.”

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