Are You Trading Crypto or Investing in It? | by Charles R. Lightner | The Capital | Jan, 2025
The crypto tide is coming in, and tidal patterns are long.
As I write this, BTC is bouncing off $90,000 and ETH is hovering just above $3,000. Both are down substantially from recent highs. The anxiety level has been rising.
Every day in my news feeds I get articles that analyze current technical trading patterns and compare current to past — sometimes long past — experience.
BTC analysts are especially fond of looking back four years to the twelve months after the 2018 halving event.
I’ve got nothing against trading or technical analysis. I ran a commodity trading fund for a few years and have a lot of respect for the trading community.
One thing I learned from that experience, though, is that unless you can compete with the high-speed quant traders, identifying and following major trends is the most likely route to profits.
High frequency traders can harvest miniscule moves at high volume and make a lot of money. They can skim ripples on the surface of the water.
Other professionals can deploy multiple uncorrelated strategies in multiple uncorrelated markets and make money if a little over 50% of…
