Will Bitcoin Models Save Us From the Bear Market? | by Mark Helfman | The Capital | Jan, 2025

Social media tells you to trust data models and cycle theories like power laws, four-year cycles, and stock-to-flow.

I’m in the middle of a series of Medium articles about those models.

They all disagree with each other and have no predictive value (unless your prediction is, “Bitcoin’s price will go up in the long run,” but you don’t need a data model to tell you that).

I looked at a bunch of models in those articles. For this post, I flag some others that sound just as compelling but won’t help you spot the peak.

“LGC” say Bitcoin’s price moves up and down within a defined range of prices denoted as curves on a price chart. Many variations exist.

On one variation, we may have already hit the peak.

Look at this chart from the alert I sent to subscribers of my Crypto is Easy newsletter on December 20, 2024.