The Bearish Signal: Bitcoin, Trump, and the MACD Histogram | by Saad Jameel | The Capital | Feb, 2025

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but the past few weeks have been particularly tense for Bitcoin traders. The MACD histogram, a trusted momentum indicator that once signaled Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to $70,000, has now turned bearish. This shift has sent ripples of uncertainty through the crypto community, especially as it coincides with President Trump’s renewed trade war rhetoric — a development that could destabilize not just crypto markets but global financial systems as a whole.

The MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a tool traders use to gauge the strength and direction of a trend. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, the MACD line has crossed below zero, a classic bearish signal. For those who follow technical analysis, this is a red flag. It suggests that the momentum that once propelled Bitcoin to new heights may be waning. But as seasoned traders know, indicators are only as good as the price action that confirms them. And right now, Bitcoin’s price action tells a slightly different story.

Despite the bearish MACD signal, Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively tight range between $90,000 and $100,000. This consolidation phase has left many wondering whether the bearish signal is a false alarm or a harbinger of things to come. After all, indicators follow price action, not the…