SBF’s political gamble on Trump is unlikely to pay off

So Sam Bankman-Fried crossed the line and now he wants to flip sides to escape his sentence. Political insiders aren’t convinced.

The disgraced crypto mogul and former FTX CEO, also known as SBF, is seeking a presidential pardon from President Donald Trump. However, the common consensus is that his chances of receiving a pardon are extremely low, if not nonexistent.

Fortune reported Monday that political insiders are already calling SBF’s pardon attempt a long shot. He has ramped up efforts to secure a presidential pardon, including rebranding himself as more aligned with Republican views.

In an unauthorized jailhouse interview with Tucker Carlson last week, Bankman-Fried expressed admiration for Republicans and distanced himself from Democrats. The interview got him thrown into solitary confinement for violating prison rules regarding unauthorized communications.

A crypto lobbyist, speaking anonymously, rated the probability of Bankman-Fried’s pardon campaign succeeding as “zero,” later amending it to “near zero” given the dynamics of the “Trump world.”

Pardon bid

It’s not entirely impossible that Bankman-Fried’s pivot to the right is part of a calculated strategy to secure a presidential pardon, following his conviction in the FTX fraud case.

Some speculate that his case might catch Trump’s interest—not because of crypto ties, but due to Trump’s grievances with the legal system.

According to a recent report from the New York Times, his family and allies are working to secure a pardon, leveraging Trump’s history of granting clemency to individuals with connections to him or those who resonate with his grievances.

However, just because it’s appealing does not mean the bid will ultimately succeed. There’s no good-faith case for a pardon—SBF hasn’t shown remorse and has no real supporters.

Most importantly, Trump’s grievances with the legal system may not outweigh his commitment to “law and order.”

Legal experts suggest that letting Bankman-Fried walk free would potentially alienate Trump’s support base, particularly working-class Americans and small investors affected by the FTX collapse.

In the first week of his presidency, Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, fulfilling a key promise Trump made during his re-election campaign. He criticized the prosecutors involved, calling the double life sentence plus 40 years “ridiculous.”

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