The 2028 Bitcoin Gold Rush: Why 99% Mined Is The Moment That Changes Everything | by Joshua Moroles | The Capital | Mar, 2025

March 22, 2025

In 2028, Bitcoin will reach one of the most important moments in its entire existence: 99% of all 21 million BTC will have been mined. That milestone isn’t just a number — it’s a paradigm shift.

As of today, March 22, 2025, we’ve mined about 19.95 million BTC — roughly 94.8% of the total supply. The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, meaning around 450 new BTC enter circulation every day.

But by the time we hit the next halving in 2028, that reward shrinks to 1.5625 BTC per block (~225 BTC/day). That will bring us to about 20.671 million BTC mined. After that? Only ~329,000 BTC left to be mined over the next 112 years.

This isn’t just another halving. It’s a psychological and economic turning point. Bitcoin transitions from a “growth asset” to a finite, near-zero inflation, ultra-scarce digital commodity.

After 2028, Bitcoin’s annual issuance drops to ~82,125 BTC/year — a mere 0.4% of total supply. By 2032? It’s 0.2%.

Compare that to:

• Gold: 1–2% annual supply growth

• Fiat currencies: Unlimited, government-controlled printing

Bitcoin becomes harder than gold — not just in code, but in actual market behavior.

This shift slams the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio (a measure of scarcity) into overdrive:

• 2025: ~126

• 2028: ~252

• 2032: ~504

Gold’s S2F? Around 60.

We’re talking about a level of scarcity unseen in any major financial asset in history.

Think back to the California Gold Rush of 1849 — people flooding in, staking claims, trying to grab what was left of a finite, valuable resource.

Now fast-forward to 2028. Bitcoin is the new gold. Except this time, there’s no more mining boom — there’s only buying.

Why It’s a Gold Rush:

• Finite Supply Becomes Real: 99% of all BTC ever is already out there

• Scarcity Shock: With supply growth near zero, every satoshi becomes more valuable

• FOMO Ignites: From governments to your neighbor, everyone wants in before it’s gone

1. Nations: The New Digital Gold Standard

Post-2028, countries that want Bitcoin will need to buy it from someone else — exchanges or hodlers. There’s no mining shortcut anymore.

• Example: If the U.S. wants 1 million BTC (~5% of supply), that’s a $675B play at base case 2028 prices.

• Impact: Just one nation making a move could push BTC from $675K to $2M+ as liquidity dries up.

Think central banks hoarding gold in the 20th century. Now replay that in Bitcoin — with much less supply available.

2. States: Sovereignty in Satoshis

States like Texas, Wyoming, and Florida already lead in crypto-friendliness. Expect them to establish state-level BTC reserves.

• Target: 10K–100K BTC per state

• Why: Mining won’t cut it after 2028 — block rewards are too small. States will have to buy BTC to stay relevant.

Texas alone could go for 50K–100K BTC, leveraging its energy grid and mining backbone for strategic reserves.

3. Counties: Small Players, Big Moves

Even counties will get in on the rush.

• Think: Miami-Dade, Travis County, or other progressive areas

• Reserve Sizes: 100–1,000 BTC

• Use Case: Diversified treasury holdings, public service funding, even tax payment options

If 100 U.S. counties each bought just 500 BTC, that’s 50K BTC — about $33.75B at $675K/BTC — sucked out of circulating supply.

4. Individuals: The Ultimate Scarcity FOMO

Retail investors — often the spark in every BTC bull run — will realize the game has changed:

No more “buy the dip,” no more “wait for a better entry.”

By 2028, the easy Bitcoin is gone. That triggers a scramble for satoshis:

• Even 0.01 BTC ($6,750) feels like gold dust

• Exchange reserves may plummet from 1.8M to 500K BTC

• Prices may rocket to $1M, $2M, or beyond

It goes like this:

1. Nations buy in, signaling Bitcoin’s legitimacy

2. States follow, worried about being left behind

3. Counties jump, trying to lock in micro reserves

4. Retail piles in, driving prices further up

Each buyer removes BTC from circulation, making it scarcer for the next group. The result? A self-reinforcing scarcity loop.

If the U.S. buys 500K BTC in 2028 → prices double → Texas buys 50K → prices spike again → counties follow → individuals FOMO in → supply vanishes

Early Movers Win:

• 2025–2028 buyers get BTC at $100K–$675K

• By 2030–2040, they could see prices of $1M–$5M+ per BTC

Latecomers Pay Up:

• After 2028, new supply is only ~82K BTC/year

• Prices might hit $2M–$10M

• Counties, smaller nations, and retail investors will need billions to acquire meaningful stakes

If Bitcoin reaches a $100 trillion market cap by 2045 (i.e., ~$5.88M per BTC):

• Nations holding 2M BTC = $11.76 trillion

• States with 200K BTC = $1.176 trillion

• Individuals with just 0.1 BTC = $588,000 net worth

2028 is the spark — the moment Bitcoin becomes digital gold, and ownership becomes a geopolitical, institutional, and personal treasure hunt.

The 2028 halving marks the beginning of a new era — not just in Bitcoin, but in how the world stores value.

Bitcoin won’t just be a “tech play” or “speculative asset.” It’ll be the most sought-after finite resource on Earth.

• For nations, it’s a reserve weapon

• For states, a sovereignty tool

• For counties, a financial edge

• For individuals, a shot at generational wealth

The 99% mined moment doesn’t just shrink supply — it triggers the race to claim what’s left.

Welcome to the Bitcoin Gold Rush. Stake your claim before it’s gone.